Food Shortages May Be Rampant In 2025—Here's Why
The American food supply is one of the most abundant and diverse on Earth, but this robust system is not without its challenges. Even in the world's largest economy, consumers will encounter empty shelves in certain grocery departments from time to time. Just ask anyone who tried to buy Trader Joe's eggs recently.
Many factors can lead to shortages of one food item or another, and there are several reasons for concern about potential impacts in the coming year, from the ripple effects of climate change and foodborne illness to expected changes in U.S. immigration and trade policies.
Although widespread food scarcity is unlikely, shoppers can reasonably expect product shortages across several categories in the new year.
"Smaller scale shortages are expected, driven by factors such as outbreaks, climate change, and tightening immigration policies," says Tejas Bhatt, founder and CEO of digital food-safety consultancy AdvanTejas and member of the Institute of Food Technologists. Moreover, Bhatt tells Eat This, Not That! that "due to the expected rise in cost of foods, food will become more inaccessible, worsening the risk of food insecurity in pockets of the country."
In 2025, shoppers could notice a lack of fresh produce on the shelves for various reasons. First, some farms depend on migrant labor for picking and packing. That workforce may soon be in jeopardy, however, following the recent U.S. presidential election. President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to enact greater restrictions on immigration and conduct mass deportations of undocumented migrants once he takes power in January.
"If immigration policies get tougher to the point where farm workers are harder to find or hire, this could cause a shortage," says Bhatt, noting that berries and apples are examples of fresh produce that is heavily reliant on migrant labor.
Climate change is another factor that can lead to food shortages. Extreme weather events, like floods and droughts, can impact growing in farming regions, which may limit crop yields. For example, droughts could create shortages for water-intensive foods like almonds, while extensive rain can cause poor water quality and damage corn or soybean crops.
Changes in U.S. trade policy could also impact the food supply. President-elect Trump's plan to implement a 25% tariff on all imported goods from Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on China's goods could increase grocery prices and make some items difficult to find.
"Tariffs will have an indirect impact on shortages by making foods more expensive, leading to lower demand, leading to lower supply—a cyclical effect that could lead to eventual shortages," Bhatt says.
Fish and crustaceans and vegetable fats and oils are some common items imported to the U.S. from China, according to Trading Economics. From Mexico, the U.S. commonly imports grocery items like cereals and processed fruits and nuts, while Canada sends cereal, flour, and alcohol products, according to the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security.
Global factors, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, may disrupt food chains and further exacerbate potential shortages. "It can have a domino effect where it creates shortages for foods historically imported from those parts of the world," says Bhatt. "For example, the fertilizer market is facing a shock due to the war in Ukraine, which has an indirect impact on the ability to grow crops in America."
Domestically, food recalls and outbreaks can lead to temporary shortages at the grocery store. In 2024, foodborne disease outbreaks, including E. coli and listeria, impacted various food items including organic walnuts, organic carrots, and onions on McDonald's burgers, according to the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC). In fact, CDC records show infections from E. coli have climbed to nearly 14,000 as of November 2024.
Experts like Bhatt are keeping an eye on this: "More outbreaks can lead to shortages, primarily due to lack of traceability and transparency," he says. "When the source of the contamination cannot be identified quickly, in the interest of protecting public health, regulatory agencies tend to be overly cautious and ask the industry to conduct expanded recalls." In turn, these items will be removed from grocery store shelves.
Customers are taking note when it comes to price spikes at the grocery store. Fairtrade America says shoppers are concerned about the cost and quality of groceries, specifically when it comes to prices for commodities grown by farmers in tropical regions hit by unpredictable weather patterns. The nonprofit expects American shoppers will pay more for bananas and other produce, herbs and spices, and nuts and oils.
Meanwhile, 70% of shoppers are concerned with rising prices at the grocery store, according to a 2024 report from the Food Industry Association. With potential shortages ahead, food prices are expected to continue to rise: the latest prediction from the Institute of Grocery Distribution expects food price inflation will increase by nearly 5% in 2025, contributing to an overall 40% increase in just five years.
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