13 Costco Groceries About to Get More Expensive if Tariffs Take Effect
Costco shoppers could soon see rising grocery prices as tariffs remain a looming threat. While the U.S. initially planned to impose hefty 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, both have been temporarily delayed for 30 days in exchange for border security measures as negotiations continue. "While importers could absorb part of the tariff, historical evidence suggests most of the tariff burden will be passed on to consumers. Prices are likely to increase close to the tariff rate, meaning a 25% tariff on food imports from Mexico and Canada will likely increase prices for imported goods by a similar margin," economist Dr. Shawn DuBravac told Food & Wine. "This price adjustment would likely happen in a single step rather than gradually over time, though some lag may occur as existing contracts and inventories deplete." These changes may eventually impact your Costco shopping experience—here are 13 grocery item prices that could go through the roof if tariffs go into effect.
Canadian Beef
The U.S. is the largest importer of Canadian beef, so expect there to be less choice and higher prices in the Costco meat department. "There's logistical challenges at the beginning," Jesse Witkowski, the founder of Deal Flow Xchange, tells NBC Boston. "There's certainly going to be a slowdown of sorts temporarily in the supply chain. There will be some things that need to be figured out, but at the end of the day if costs are going up to produce something then they usually are passed on to the end consumer, and in this case they certainly will be."
Kirkland Tequila
Costco carries imported alcohol like Kirkland tequila, which comes from the Santa Lucia distillery and could go up in price if the tariffs against Mexico go into effect next month. "When I used to drink tequila, I tried Kirkland and compared it to a bunch of other ones, including some pretty expensive ones, e.g. $100 a bottle. Kirkland was my favorite," one Redditor said.
Fruit and Berries
Costco's fresh berries could go up in price if the tariff's go into effect. In fact, berries come second only to avocados as Mexico's biggest produce export to the U.S. According to The Packer, 85% of total U.S. strawberry imports in 2022 came from Mexico.
Flowers
The price of fresh-cut flowers in Costco could go up depending on how much they import from Canada, which exported $90 million in 2022, with $89.9M going to the U.S., according to OEC. "I do think that when we look at our produce department, that's where we're going to see empty shelves," food industry analyst Phil Lempert told ABC7. "The one other thing we do get from Canada is fresh cut flowers, so leading up to Valentine's Day, we might have a shortage of fresh cut flowers as well," says
Chocolate From Canada and Mexico
The U.S. imports a huge amount of chocolate from Canada (almost two billion USD in 2023 alone), and the second-highest chocolate imports to the U.S. come from Mexico, so Costco shoppers may find their favorite treats going up in price.
Pork Products
Costco meat department enthusiasts may notice the price of pork going up, as Canada exports millions of livestock and meat to the U.S. every year. "It's the uncertainty of not knowing that forces you to completely rethink that (business) model," Ontario pig farmer Stewart Skinner, who sells 95% of his product to the U.S., tells Reuters. "The market for our pigs is in the USA, not here in Canada."
Vegetable Oil
The U.S. imports a significant amount of cooking oil from Canada, so those giant Costco cans of oil may soon go up in price. "The U.S was the largest export market for Canadian cooking oils (81.5% market share) valued at US$4.2 billion," according to Agriculture and Agri-food Canada.
Avocados From Mexico
The U.S. imports 2.4 billion pounds of Mexican Hass avocados every year, according to the Produce Blue Book. Mexican avocados are a staple in Costco's grocery department. "The new data validates the positive economic impact spurred by Americans' embrace of the fruit, the mutually beneficial relationship between our two countries, and the importance of maintaining strong trade ties," said Ron Campbell, Executive Director of the Mexican Hass Avocado Importers Association (MHAIA).
Mexican Beer
Costco sells popular Mexican beer brands such as Modelo and Corona, which are very popular in the U.S. "The most popular beer brand in the entire country right now is Modelo," Malcolm Purinton, an assistant teaching professor of history at Northeastern University, tells Northeastern Global News. "The thing is the demand isn't going to go away, but the costs are going to go up. … You'll see all the Mexican beers, also tequila, mezcal, any agave spirits, it's going to dramatically affect the costs of those."
Fresh Tomatoes
Getting good quality fresh tomatoes from Costco could become a challenge, as the U.S imports most of its tomatoes from Mexico. "The United States is Mexico's top tomato export market, with 1.82 MMT in exports valued at USD 2.7 billion in 2023, up by one percent in terms of volume and ten percent in value compared to 2022," says the USDA. "Investments in greenhouse technology in recent years has enabled producers to deliver better quality products."
Maple Syrup
Canada is America's largest supplier of maple syrup, so expect prices for Costco's maple syrup to go up. "It could mean the consumer [will decide] to use something else instead of the maple syrup," Frédérick Dion, the president of the New Brunswick Maple Syrup Association, tells CBC. "Certainly it's going to be a roller-coaster, another four-year roller-coaster, I think."
Canadian Cookies and Cakes
The U.S exports a huge amount of confectionery from Canada, which could impact Costco cookie and chocolate prices. Not only that, but the U.S. also gets 15% of its raw sugar imports from Mexico, which could further affect grocery prices and availability.
Gas Prices
Even filling up at a Costco gas station may not be the deal it usually is thanks to the trade war with Canada. "What you are seeing is a great reshuffling of oil about to begin," analyst Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates tells CNN. "You'll see something at the pump in the next five to seven days. Depending on where you are in the country, it could be up to another 15 cents a gallon."
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